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Switch our bots on, size them, and watch a paper bankroll move. Every trade below is a real round‑trip this desk actually placed — real market, real entry, real exit, real result — replayed in the order it happened and rescaled to the stake you pick. Nothing is invented and nothing is shuffled.
Every trade replayed above is a real, already-settled round‑trip this desk placed on Kalshi — real market, real entry, real exit, real fees — rescaled to whatever stake you choose. It is simulated performance: the trades are real, but the bankroll, the sizing and the sequence are not, so no result here was achieved by anyone.
Our priced tennis book is 88‑89 of 177 graded (269 ungraded) — a 49.7% win rate — and it is +$0.142 net per contract. Those two facts are not in tension. What you are paid depends on the price you paid, not on how often you are right. Buying at 30¢ and winning half the time beats buying at 80¢ and winning two thirds of the time. A win rate with no price attached is a vanity number, which is why every figure on this site carries its denominator.
Across 281 recorded exits, resting take‑profit targets earned while stops and unprotected run‑to‑expiry accounted for the entire loss. That is the single most useful thing this desk has learned, and it says the opposite of what most people optimise. A Kalshi take‑profit that fills early is usually not a mistake.
Kalshi charges roughly 0.07 × P × (1−P) per contract,
which means the fee is worst in the middle of the book and cheapest at the edges.
It also means a cheap contract costs proportionally far more to enter than a dear
one. Fees are already deducted from every number on this page.
The NRFI model prices whether a run scores in the first inning, and the Kalshi NRFI strategy above is graded on real settlements, not on the model's opinion. We also publish what did not work: the Kalshi crypto strategy results are −$5.55 net over 244 real trades, a loss significant at p<0.05, and the strategy was stopped. A record that only contains winners is a curated record, and a curated record is not evidence.
Educational and informational only. Not investment, trading, legal or tax advice. Past and simulated performance are not indicative of future results.
For educational and informational purposes only. EDGEWISE is software. It is not a broker, exchange, investment adviser, or commodity trading advisor, and nothing it produces is investment, trading, legal, or tax advice. No output is personalized to any individual's circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any record, probability, or projection shown is an estimate produced by software over a limited sample and is frequently wrong. Event contracts carry risk, including total loss of the amount committed. Do not commit money you cannot afford to lose.
You are solely responsible for every order you place and for operating within your exchange's rules, including any personal position or trading limits applied to your account. Software provided by EDGEWISE is standardized and identical for all users; it is not customized to any individual.